Thats a very interesting question, EG. And does make me think. As I am not the golfer you are (would guess I am about a 17 or 18 hdcp shoot high 80's low 90's) I doubt my response is relevant.
But the bottom line is - it depends

. Assume that the situation is about 150 out and a decent lie, in the fairway. Where is the sand?, the water? The pin? I try to play smart, not that I succeed. ( I usually just suck

).
Two holes at my usual course come to mind, the 7th and the 18th. The 7th is downhill, the fairway and green sloping hard left to right, go over or right and you end up in real trash. So I usually aim short, left and with a less lofted club to let the ball roll on, with a little effort to end up in the general area of the hole, but content to be on and hoping to be putting for birdie.
The 18th is well elevated green with a good slope behind acting as a backstop, and no major problems if you do go long, except having a real downhill putt. I almost always take a higher lofted club and try to stick the pin. If i end up short at least I have an uphill putt.