2 hole-in-ones in one round

[sssmokin]

Driving home from work this morning I was listening to the Bob &Tom Show. They had a story about some guy in Iowa that recently got two hole in ones during one 18 hole round. They said Golf Digest said that the odds of that happening were 670 million to one. Unreal..............

 

[eclark53520]

I need to come to work later...i miss all the good stuff...i get to hear the best of for a half hour and then a half hour of the show adn then i have to get out adn go into the office...

Thats insane to get two in one round...two in one lifetime would be good for me...

 

[Adam Pettman]

Pah.. only two.

 

[CircleTen]

That is insane...

 

[SilverUberXeno]

I don't know how you get "odds" in a skill-related activity like golf.

Use basketball as an analogy... the odds of making a shot are ????

You can either make it, or miss it. So in that sense, it's a 1/2.

But the inside of the rim, compared to the area of the vacinity of the rim, is 1/100, generously. So really it should be that 1/2 x 1/100 = 1/200. According to statistics, you should only make 1 out of every 200 shots.

Unfortunately for these doofuses, humans develop skill. That's why even a novice player will make MANY more than 1/200.

The "odds" of making a hole-in-one seems silly to me. I'd like to see how they get that number.

 

[King Par]

Aren't the odds calculated by - Desired Outcome/Number of Possible outcomes?

I don't know how you'd find out the Number of Possible outcomse unless you do a bunch of math and estimation but then the margin for error is so large that the statistics don't really matter.

Take it for what it's worth. We all play golf. We know how hard it is to get a hole in one as well as the rarity, so either way, that is incredible.

 

[LyleG]

1 - lucky
2 - extremely lucky

 

[Clugnut]

Golfworld this week says that it has been done twice this year in college golf. Once on the men's side, once by a woman. The guy that did it still ended up 17 over for the tourney, so I'd say that some serious luck was involved there.

 

[warbirdlover]

I got my first last summer after 40 years. It's pure, dumb luck for an amateur. A pro who can get closer to the pin shot after shot would be more apt to get one (better odds?) but luck still applies.

 

[Dusty90]

Damn, now I know why I can't get one

These people keep hogging them all.

 

[SilverUberXeno]

The odds change for every individual golfer. It's the only way to calculate anything. You'd have to take their average dispersion left/right, and their average distance % error forward and back in reference to where they're aiming their shot. Even then you must assume they know exactly where to land it to roll it into the hole from the tee.

I think the chance of them creating accurate probability for hole-in-one's is about 1 - 670,000,000...

 

[DaGris]

got my first after only playing for 1 year......it takes skill to hit it on the green, 97% luck if it goes in the hole.


two in one round is amazing, thats for sure.

 

[David Hillman]

The odds change for every individual golfer. It's the only way to calculate anything. You'd have to take their average dispersion left/right, and their average distance % error forward and back in reference to where they're aiming their shot. Even then you must assume they know exactly where to land it to roll it into the hole from the tee.

I don't think that's how they calculate it. I bet they just say, for example, that X golfers played Y rounds last year. That means they played roughly Y * 4 par 3s. Take the number of aces hit that year, A, over Y*4, and you have a rough estimate of the likelihood of a randomly-selected golfer hitting an ace.

 

[5iron]

Pah.. only two.

lol, but no really nice job by that guy !

 

[Topflite_D2]

That would be awesome, but it luck unless you do it 18 times in a row, haha. I bet he still scored 110.