2 hole-in-ones in one round

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I have had 3-4 in one rd, but it's always that damn windmill which knocks me back to reality.
 
I don't think that's how they calculate it. I bet they just say, for example, that X golfers played Y rounds last year. That means they played roughly Y * 4 par 3s. Take the number of aces hit that year, A, over Y*4, and you have a rough estimate of the likelihood of a randomly-selected golfer hitting an ace.

This is feasible, but the resulting data is almost useless. I guess they just really wanted a big number.
 
I got my first last summer after 40 years. It's pure, dumb luck for an amateur. A pro who can get closer to the pin shot after shot would be more apt to get one (better odds?) but luck still applies. :D
When I got mine, the first par 3 I played in the very next round (which was about 6 weeks later since mine happened in December), I landed a ball 1 foot in front and hit the stick finishing about a foot away.

For me it is usually pure, dumb luck to get 2 GIR's on 2 par 3's in one round. :D

edit 1 - Last week a friend did manage to Eagle a par 4 from around 100 yards, then on the very next par 4 put one within a foot from about 180 yards out which would have been for eagle. This was pretty wild to see happen and almost inconceivable, couldn't imagine seeing two aces in one round.
 
definitely lucky

1 - lucky
2 - extremely lucky

Yep, it's luck and hopefully a little bit of skill. I've had two (not in the same round) and I was playing like s**t both times. Just accidently flushed it and had the line right. And for the guy who said two in a lifetime would work for him......wrong. You'll always want to do it again. It feels too good...
 
Silver, a Golf World article in 2004 ("The Rarest Bird" by Bill Fields -- actually an article about double eagles) reports these numbers:

an average golfer has odds of 12,700 to 1 compared to that of a tour pro whose odds are 3,700 to 1. I think that David has it right -- at least for the tour pros because it is easy to know how many par 3 holes were played and how many aces were made, hence the probability can be estimated.

When probabilites are this small, there is always going to be inaccuracies. The events are so rare that there is no meaningful differences between 1 in 10,000 and one in 50,000. Even most avid amateur golfers aren't going to play 10,000 par 3 holes in their lifetimes. So, the numbers are really meaningless. Nevertheless, the articles always like to report the numbers -- it is a fluff piece anyway, so why not have some fluff numbers, too?
 

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